Table 1

Calibration and discrimination of 5-year predicted breast cancer (BC) risks under the BOADICEA model using different risk factor combinations

Model	Category	AUC	Harrell’s C-index	E/O	Calibration slope
Using cohort-1, N=2979 including 209 incident BCs (BRCA1: 1614 including 127 incident BCs; BRCA2: 1365 including 82 incident BCs)
Null (age only)	All women	0.70 (0.66, 0.73)	0.64 (0.59, 0.67)	0.06 (0.05, 0.07)	0.45 (0.42, 0.47)
	BRCA1 PV carriers	0.69 (0.64, 0.74)	0.62 (0.57, 0.67)	0.05 (0.04, 0.06)	0.42 (0.39, 0.44)
	BRCA2 PV carriers	0.72 (0.67, 0.78)	0.67 (0.61, 0.74)	0.08 (0.06, 0.10)	0.49 (0.45, 0.53)
PV	All women	0.76 (0.73, 0.80)	0.68 (0.64, 0.72)	0.80 (0.69, 0.93)	0.93 (0.88, 0.98)
	BRCA1 PV carriers	0.75 (0.71, 0.79)	0.65 (0.59, 0.70)	0.83 (0.69, 1.00)	0.94 (0.87, 1.01)
	BRCA2 PV carriers	0.79 (0.74, 0.84)	0.73 (0.67, 0.77)	0.75 (0.60, 0.95)	0.92 (0.85, 1.00)
PV+QRFs	All women	0.78 (0.76, 0.81)	0.69 (0.66, 0.74)	0.78 (0.67, 0.90)	0.93 (0.88, 0.98)
	BRCA1 PV carriers	0.77 (0.73, 0.81)	0.67 (0.61, 0.72)	0.82 (0.68, 0.98)	0.94 (0.87, 1.01)
	BRCA2 PV carriers	0.81 (0.76, 0.85)	0.74 (0.68, 0.79)	0.72 (0.57, 0.91)	0.91 (0.84, 0.99)
PV+PRS	All women	0.77 (0.73, 0.80)	0.68 (0.64, 0.71)	0.88 (0.76, 1.01)	0.95 (0.90, 1.00)
	BRCA1 PV carriers	0.75 (0.70, 0.79)	0.66 (0.59, 0.70)	0.91 (0.75, 1.09)	0.95 (0.88, 1.02)
	BRCA2 PV carriers	0.79 (0.74, 0.83)	0.72 (0.68, 0.78)	0.83 (0.66, 1.05)	0.95 (0.87, 1.03)
PV+QRFs+PRS	All women	0.78 (0.75, 0.81)	0.69 (0.66, 0.73)	0.86 (0.74, 0.99)	0.95 (0.89, 1.00)
	BRCA1 PV carriers	0.76 (0.72, 0.80)	0.66 (0.62, 0.72)	0.89 (0.74, 1.07)	0.95 (0.88, 1.02)
	BRCA2 PV carriers	0.80 (0.76, 0.84)	0.73 (0.69, 0.78)	0.80 (0.64, 1.01)	0.94 (0.86, 1.01)
Using cohort-2, N=1804 including 191 incident BCs (BRCA1: 1016 including 118 incident BCs; BRCA2: 788 including 73 incident BCs)
PV+QRFs+PRS	All women	0.78 (0.75, 0.81)	0.69 (0.65, 0.72)	0.85 (0.74, 0.99)	0.94 (0.89, 1.00)
	BRCA1 PV carriers	0.76 (0.72, 0.80)	0.67 (0.62, 0.72)	0.87 (0.72, 1.05)	0.95 (0.88, 1.02)
	BRCA2 PV carriers	0.78 (0.74, 0.83)	0.72 (0.67, 0.78)	0.83 (0.65, 1.06)	0.94 (0.86, 1.02)
FH+QRFs+PRS+PV	All women	0.79 (0.76, 0.82)	0.70 (0.67, 0.74)	1.07 (0.92, 1.24)	1.06 (1.00, 1.12)
	BRCA1 PV carriers	0.78 (0.74, 0.82)	0.69 (0.62, 0.74)	1.05 (0.87, 1.27)	1.05 (0.97, 1.13)
	BRCA2 PV carriers	0.79 (0.75, 0.84)	0.72 (0.66, 0.77)	1.10 (0.86, 1.40)	1.07 (0.98, 1.16)

AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; FH, family history; PRS, polygenic risk score; PV, pathogenic variant status in BRCA1 and BRCA2; QRFs, questionnaire-based risk factors.